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SHORT-TERM TREND (10 days or less). Tilted in favor of lower rates and higher prices.
LONG-TERM TREND (11 days or more) Tilted in favor of lower rates and higher investor prices. |
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Commentary: The economic calendar is vacant today – leaving mortgage investors with little more than trading activity in the stock markets from which to take their directional cues for mortgage interest rates. Higher stock prices tend to push mortgage interest rates higher while lower stock prices are usually supportive of steady to perhaps fractionally lower mortgage interest rates.
Uncle Sam will be in the credit markets for three successive days beginning tomorrow -- looking to borrow a total of $81 billion in the form of 3- and 10-year notes together with a package of 30-year bonds. Persistent concerns over potential sovereign debt defaults by Greece and other debt-laden European nations – together with worries about the “contagion effect” such an event might create for the global economy as a whole -- is almost certain to create solid “flight-to-quality” demand at this week’s three-part Treasury auction. If so, the deluge of incoming debt supply from Uncle Sam will not likely move mortgage interest rates much one way or the other.
Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET. The broad topic has to do with publicly exploring the Fed’s wind-down plans for a number of existing stimulus programs – not the least of which is the Fed’s direct mortgage-backed security purchase initiative set to expire at the end of March. Mortgage market participants will be listening intently for anything market moving – but they will likely hear little more than political posturing from committee members. For his part, Chairman Bernanke can be expected to do his level best to prevent monetary policy and the related strategies from becoming politicized. He is keenly aware history is strewn with lessons about the financial catastrophes that have befallen nations that travelled down the slippery slope of allowing politically motivated parties to set monetary policy. If the Fed appears in any way appears to be losing its independence -- expect mortgage investors to register their concern by pushing mortgage interest rates higher. In my judgment while such an event is possible – it is not very probable. Nonetheless, I think it would be wise to consider this event a “wild-card” in terms of its potential impact on the direction of mortgage interest rates this week.
The only major economic report on tap this week is Thursday’s 8:30 a.m. ET release of the January Retail Sales figures. Both the headline figure and the component of the report excluding auto sales are expected to post modest gains after a surprising slump in December. The slight anticipated improvement for retail sales will likely be viewed as temporary since job creation remains dismal. If so, this event will tend to be mortgage interest rate neutral. |
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Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert
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201 Sanctuary Way
Burleson
,
TX 76028
$1,175
Agent: Priscilla Shields 972-313-0628
Date listed on this site: 2/8/2010
Loan Officer: Houston Loan Officer (Lic #2525)
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300 Bowie Unit 1102
Austin
,
Texas 78703
$275,000
Agent: Kathleen E. Meece, GRI 512-633-1180
Skyline Properties
Date listed on this site: 2/7/2010
Loan Officer: Austin Loan Officer (Lic #2525)
View Web Site View Flyer
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8424 Red Willow
Austin
,
Texas 78736
$249,900
Agent: Kathleen E. Meece, GRI 512-633-1180
Skyline Properties
Date listed on this site: 2/7/2010
Loan Officer: Austin Loan Officer (Lic #2525)
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5635 Banting WAY
Dallas
,
Texas 75227
$103,000
Agent: Carolyn McInnis 214-381-0469
Carolyn McInnis Properties
Date listed on this site: 2/7/2010
Loan Officer: Dallas Loan Officer (Lic #2525)
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1025 Fisher
Houston
,
Texas 77018
$179,900
Agent: Katie Thompson 832-492-8322
Keller Williams
Date listed on this site: 2/7/2010
Loan Officer: Jim Norris (Lic #2525)
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2901 Las Palmas DR
Plano
,
Texas 75075
$160,000
Agent: Lou Rios 214-771-1122
RE/MAX Hometown
Date listed on this site: 2/6/2010
Loan Officer: Dallas Loan Officer (Lic #2525)
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575 Bendigo Lane
Wimberley
,
Texas 78676
$5,400,000
Agent: Ardia Barnett 512 847 2291
Wimberley Land Co
Date listed on this site: 2/6/2010
Loan Officer: Elle Roloff (Lic #16352)
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601 Southriver
Wimberley
,
Texas 78676
$1,350,000
Agent: Ardia Barnett 512 847 2291
Wimberley Land Co
Date listed on this site: 2/6/2010
Loan Officer: Elle Roloff (Lic #16352)
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