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Daily Market Watch for Wednesday, September 20, 2017 (Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert )
Short Term Trend (5 days or less): Favors steady to slightly higher rates and fractionally lower prices.
Long Term Trend (6 days or more): Favors steady to fractionally higher rates and slightly lower prices.
                      30 Year Fixed (National Average)
15-Minute Daily Chart of the Fannie Mae 5.0% - 30 Year from mktalert.net

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Last 5 Days          



 
Commentary:



Earlier this morning the National Association of Realtors reported the pace of August existing home sales fell by 1.7% from the prior month. It was the fourth decline in the past five months – and all of it is essentially blamed on a lack of available homes to buy. The pace of sales in August was also negatively impacted as Hurricane Harvey hammered the south.



Non-seasonally adjusted listings of single-family homes came in at 1.66 million in August, down by 1.8% from July and down 6.7% from August 2016.



The NAR said the price trend for existing homes remained steady at a rate between 5% and 6% a year. The non-seasonally adjusted median price for existing single-family homes was $255,500, up 6% from August 2016.



Mortgage investors yawned.



As they do every Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers of America released their Mortgage Application Survey figures for the week ended September 15th. Overall single-family mortgage application traffic dropped 9.7% on a week-over-week basis. Refinance requests declined by 8.5% and purchase money loan application activity slumped 10.8%.



On a four-week moving average basis, refinance loan applications are up 6.3% over the past month, and they are 37.5% lower than this same time last year. Purchase-money mortgage loan requests are down 0.9% over the past month, but they are 3.9% higher than the year-ago mark.



For the week ended September 15th, refinance applications accounted for 52.1% of all single-family mortgage applications filed.



The contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate conforming mortgages rose one basis point to 4.04%. The interest rate is eight basis points lower than four weeks ago, and it is 34 basis points higher than this same time last year.





Mortgage investors are awaiting the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. – which will be heralded by the release of the Fed’s traditional post-meeting statement. Fed Chairman Yellen is slated to hold a press conference thirty minutes later.



The vast majority of market participants believe the Fed will not move to tighten their benchmark short-term interest rates this time around – choosing instead to wait and pull that particular trigger at their mid-December meeting. If the Fed signals an increased pace of rate hikes are likely in 2018 – mortgage investors will almost certainly register their displeasure with this notion by pushing rates notably higher over the next couple of days.



The probabilities are low the Fed will make such an announcement today – but investors will likely be very cautious until they are certain central bankers currently have no plans to move aggressively with future rate hikes.



Market participants broadly expect the central bank will announce action to shrink its balance sheet will begin on October 1st.



As it stands now, the balance sheet reduction plan starts out with a curtailment of $10 billion a month ($4 billion of mortgages and $6 billion of Treasury debt obligations) and will ratchet up by that same amount every quarter until it reaches a maximum monthly cutback pace of $50 billion per month ($20 billion in mortgages and $30 billion in Treasury debt obligations).



The Fed intends to make this process so stress-free for the credit markets that it will be akin to watching paint dry. At the currently anticipated pace -- it will take years to make a dent in the Fed’s balance sheet.




If that is the way it works out – this process will exert only the slightest upward pressure on mortgage interest rates through the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, there is quite a history indicating the Fed's plans and their execution are many times worlds apart – and that history will likely cause mortgage investors to be very hesitant to nudge mortgage interest rates noticeably lower from current levels. Heads up.
 
Commentary and Chart Courtesy of Larry Baer and Market Alert

Recent Additions to The Sweetwater Real Estate Page View The Sweetwater Real Estate Page
16314 Leamington Ln.
Houston , TX   77095
$169,000
Agent: Sheila Joplin     (281)236-4555
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene
Date listed on this site: 8/17/2017

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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16314 Leamington Ln. Houston TX 77095
 
5906 BIRDWOOD RD.
HOUSTON , TX.   77074
$259,000
Agent: JANIE Y LEE     832.677.5899
REALTY ASSOCIATES
Date listed on this site: 8/9/2017

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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5906 BIRDWOOD RD. HOUSTON TX. 77074
 
8618 Hot Springs Dr.
Houston , TX   77095
$249,900
Agent: Sheila Joplin     (281)236-4555
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene
Date listed on this site: 7/5/2017

Loan Officer: Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)

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8618 Hot Springs Dr. Houston TX 77095
 
 
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Jim Norris - President (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1 Toll Free

jim@sweetwatermortgage.com 

Elle Roloff Norris - Operations Manager (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr.
Houston, TX 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 2
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elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

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Brenham:Gayle Valentine-Hill (RMLO #298234)
119 W Commerce St
Brenham, TX 77833
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Brenham:Sandra Starnes (RMLO #298126)
119 W Commerce Street
Brenham, TX 77833
979-353-4234
979-251-0726

Email:sandra@texashomeplacemortgage.com
Houston:Jim Norris (RMLO #304627)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, Tx 77065
(281) 970-1082 ext 1
(866) 717-4556 ext 1
Email:jim@sweetwatermortgage.com
Houston:Ellen Roloff Norris (RMLO #304630)
12010 Miramar Shores Dr
Houston, TX 77065
281-970-1082 ext 2
866-717-4556 ext 2
Email:elle@sweetwatermortgage.com

 

 
 
  
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